Two weeks ago, I had zero intention of watching this event.
With Vitor Belfort pulled from the main event due to a hand injury, replaced by the always reliable Rich Franklin, and surrounded by the cast of TUF: Brazil, plus Mike Russow and Fabricio Werdum, I planned on finding something else to do with my Saturday night. I’d watch the prelims (available on Rogers Sportsnet regional channels), and then rock the couch with Twitter providing me updates on the main card contests.
But a funny thing happened on the way to fight day: I kept getting more and more interested in this card.
The more I wrote about how I understood people opting to skip this event, the more I started thinking that I’ve paid for some pretty bad fight cards in my day, and this one, while far from must-see, still has some redeeming characteristics.
Franklin and Wanderlei Silva rarely fail to deliver individually, so I can’t see them putting forth a dud when paired for a second time, and the Russow-Werdum heavyweight clash has actual title implications, which is kind of what you want from a pay-per-view main card contest, no? Plus, the two TUF: Brazil finals feature prospects who could have an impact in their respective divisions, and I’m interested to see if I can see what others see in them once they’re in the cage.
After two weeks of trying to make plans to do something else, I’m planning on settling in, ordering the pay-per-view, and enjoying the fights.
Here are my picks for UFC 147.
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Rich Franklin (28-6) vs. Wanderlei Silva (34-11-1)
Even though he’s coming off a 16-month layoff and shoulder surgery, I have to give the edge to Franklin in this one as he’s the more known quantity in this fight. While Wanderlei was able to get back into the win column last time out against Cung Le, he took a few solid shots from the San Shou expert in that one, and was dropped in 27 second the fight before that. As much as the fan in me wants to see “The Axe Murderer” make one more run towards the title, the analyst in me knows that Franklin has the better prospects for winning this fight.
I think Franklin will be too well-rounded, and too technical for Silva here, just as he was when he edged out the decision in their first meeting at UFC 99. Conditioning is never an issue, he does a very good job of mixing up his striking, and I don’t think he’ll allow himself to get into too many bad spots opposite Silva. Wanderlei capitalized on Le’s empty gas tank and somewhat predictable approach at UFC 139, but won’t have those options here, which means he’ll need to come forward more frequently trying to press the action.
That’s been when things have gone bad for Silva in recent years, and I see it happening again here.
Prediction: Rich Franklin by TKO, Round 2
Cezar Ferreirra (4-2) vs. Sergio Moraes (6-1)
Vitor Belfort is super-high on his #1 pick Ferreirra, and he’s looked very good in working his way to the finals, where he’ll face Moraes, who is replacing finalist Daniel Sarafian, who knocked him out in the first round of their semifinal fight.
My money is on Cezar “Mutante” in this one, as the Team Belfort fighter has been the better of the two throughout the competition, and I like the fact that he relocated to Las Vegas a couple years back to train with Belfort and the collection of quality athletes at Xtreme Couture on a permanent basis. Moraes has the ground skills to nullify anything Ferreirra on the canvas, which should lead to this fight being a stand-up affair, which heavily favours the Team Belfort product in my opinion.
Moraes got caught in the semifinals, and I think he gets caught in the finals as well.
PredictionL Cezar “Mutante” Ferreirra by TKO, Round 1
Rony “Jason” Mariano Bezerra (10-3) vs. Godofredo “Pepey” Castro (8-0)
This is one of those fights where I can only pick based on the information available to me. Having never seen “Pepey” prior to TUF: Brazil, and not knowing any of the opposition his dispatched during his 8-0 career, it’s hard for me to get a good grasp on what he has to offer in this one. Conversely, I’ve seen “Jason” fight in the past, and know that a win over Felipe Arantes is solid, a loss to Renan Barao is nothing to be ashamed of, and that dropping a bout Genair “Junior PQD” da Silva by doctor’s stoppage isn’t all that bad either.
Additionally, he was the first overall pick of the competition, has rattled off five straight first-round finishes heading into this one, and looks to be a much better long-term prospect than “Pepey” at this point.
Prediction: Rony “Jason” Mariano Bezerra by Submission, Round 1
Fabricio Werdum (15-5-1) vs. Mike Russow (15-1)
I think Russow is being sold short heading into this match-up, and has more than a puncher’s chance to pull off the upset, but I have to pick Werdum.
In his return to the UFC, the Brazilian grappling standout showed excellent Muay Thai skills, beating the bejesus out of Roy “Big Country” Nelson at UFC 143 in February. Like everyone else, Werdum wasn’t able to put Nelson away, but he left him bloody and beaten, and made a statement in the process. While I think Russow will be far less likely to accept a fight in close quarters than Nelson was, Werdum appears to have the advantage wherever this fight takes place. As solid as Russow’s ground game is, Werdum is a notch above him on the canvas, and has the more varied, powerful arsenal on the feet as well.
Prediction: Fabricio Werdum by Unanimous Decision
Yuri Alcantara (27-3) vs. Hacran Dias (20-1-1)
Dias is a methodical grappler with an sparkling record in his native Brazil, and was signed directly by the UFC, which should tell you something about what they think of him. For me, however, this is another one of those fights where I side with the guy I’ve seen over the prospect who could very well come away with the win.
Alcantara has looked solid in his three appearances between the WEC and UFC, knocking out featherweight contender Ricardo Lamas in his lone WEC fight before earning back-to-back decision wins since moving into the Octagon. While he tired last time out against Michihiro Omigawa, he still did enough to get the win, and though Dias could certainly come in, control the action on the ground, and get the win, I’ll side with Alcantara, and risk taking the loss.
Prediction: Yuri Alcantara by Unanimous Decision
Preliminary Card Predictions
Anistavio “Gasparzinho” Medeiros over Rodrigo Damm — Unanimous Decision
Delson Heleno over Francisco Drinaldo — Submission, Round 2
Hugo “Wolverine” Viana over John “Macapa” Texeira — Unanimous Decision
Thiago “Bodao” Perpetuo over Leonardo Mafra — TKO, Round 2
Marcos Vina over Wagner Campos — Unanimous Decision
Felipe Arantes over Milton Vieira — TKO, Round 2
Main Card Record: 61-46-1
Overall Record: 139-95-1
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